4) Control Measures Just Sufficient (R0~1)

 

Strong and sufficient control

A reduction of transmission (50%) would most likely contain the spread of disease and limit the number of infected individuals to very few. In the case of our model, 80% of the realisations did not result in a country wide epidemic. The epidemic would last around 30 days on average, affecting around 110 people in total. In this scenario we are not considering repeated introductions of the disease into the country. Repeated introduction would almost certainly increase the number of infected people and prolong the epidemic considerably. In the case of a global pandemic repeated introductions would be highly likely.

Day 5

Day 10

A few cases localised close to the initial introductions would be seen on day 5.

Few further cases are seen around the country by day 10 in most realisations of the model. A few chance transmission events may prolong spread for a short while.

By day 20 we may not see any further cases. In a few realisations of the model (20%) the epidemic persists for longer than 20 days, when ignoring re-introductions of disease from external sources. 

Day 20